Research

The most exciting phrase to hear in science, the one that heralds new discoveries, is not “Eureka” but “That’s funny...”

—Isaac Asimov (1920–1992)

Household Inflation Expectations and Consumer Spending: Evidence from Panel Data (with Mary Burke) - 2023, Review of Economics and Statistics, Dallas Fed blog post on this paper.

Business Complexity and Risk Management: Evidence from Operational Risk Events in U.S. Bank Holding Companies (with Anna Chernobai and Jianlin Wang) - Journal of Monetary Economics, 2021

Show Me the Money: The Monetary Policy Risk Premium (with Mihail Velikov)  - Journal of Financial Economics, 2020, CFAI Summary on this paper

Financial Frictions and the Stock Price Reaction to Monetary Policy  - Review of Financial Studies, 2018

The Transmission of Monetary Policy through Bank Lending: The Floating Rate Channel (with Filippo Ippolito and Ander Perez) - Journal of Monetary Economics, 2018, VOXEU article on this paper

Financial Leverage, Corporate Investment and Stock Returns - Review of Financial Studies, 2012

Working Papers

Monetary Policy Through Production Networks: Evidence from the Stock Market (with Michael Weber) - (NBER WP 23424) 

Interest Rates and Insurance Company Investment Behavior (with Zixuan Wang) - (AFA 2019 version) - R&R Review of Financial Studies

Entrepreneurship and Occupational Choice in the Global Economy (with Federico Diez) - R&R IMF Economic Review

High-Yield Debt Covenants and Their Real Effects (with Falk Braeuning and Victoria Ivashina) - CLS Blue Sky blog post on this paper.

Is Public Debt Arm’s Length? Evidence from Corporate Bond Purchases of Life Insurance Companies (with Monica Barbosa) - [WFA 2021: Paper/Slides; NBER Insurance Spring 2023: Presentation], Dallas Fed blog post on this paper

Interest Rate Surprises: A Tale of Two Shocks (with Ricardo Nunes and Jenny Tang) -  Dallas Fed blog post on this paper. 

Uncertainty, Stock Prices, and Debt Structure: Evidence from the U.S.-China Trade War (with Jianlin Wang) - Dallas Fed blog and Berkeley Economics Newsroom post on this paper

Not So Fast: High-Frequency Financial Data for Macroeconomic Event Studies (December 2013)

Monetary Policy Shocks and Stock Returns: Identification Through Impossible Trinity (with Yifan Yu, updated in September 2013)

Distressed, but not risky: Reconciling the empirical relationship between financial distress, market-based risk indicators, and stock returns (and more) (November 2012, AEA 2013 version; this supersedes The Distress Premium Puzzle (November 2010))

Implications of Investment Adjustment Cost for Investment Behavior (under substantial revision)

On the College Dropouts: Wealth and Uninsurable Idiosyncratic Risk (with Nicholas Trachter) (Aug 2015) - revision in progress

College Enrollment, Dropouts and Option Value of Education (with Nicholas Trachter)